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I have been thinking about two important changes in oil markets that are bound to affect tanker markets. These are in addition to the Opec production cap and rising global oil prices. First, Saudi Arabia is growing refinery capacity faster than expected, which will change its balance of trade in both crude oil and oil products. Secondly, the US is pursuing a policy of ‘energy dominance’ supported by the news that domestic US oil production has recovered its 10 Mn bpd peak of 1970, putting Uncle Sam on course to exceed Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s number one oil producer. These factors are driving a rise in M&A activity in oil and gas. In time, these mergers may consolidate charteri