I started 2019 with a research note about The Asian Century, concluding that within ten years we would all be in the Belt and Road Initiative, whether we liked it or not. Not a year later, the Belt buckle is straining while the Road is longer with many more winding turns than the Chinese ever expected. The pushback started before 2019 of course, but it has intensified this year. And the focus hasn't been only on China's massive mining, engineering and construction firms whic

The US and China announced their Phase One trade deal on Friday, though it has not yet been signed by either side. The deal reduces some US tariffs on goods it imports from China while increasing Chinese purchases of US agricultural products and energy. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told media on Sunday that, while there will still be some ‘routine scrubs’ to the text of the deal, the deal is “totally done, absolutely.” Lighthizer announced that the USD 160 Bn of

On Friday China announced that it would waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the US. It was promoted as a goodwill gesture but is clearly self-interested. China’s swine herd has been devastated by African Swine Fever, so China needs to import protein. Already in the first nine months of this year, US exports of hogs to China and Hong Kong were up 47% despite higher costs (data from China customs). China is buying soybeans from Latin American traders

I’ve been writing a course on the evolution of the Chinese shipping industry over the last 40 years and its likely trajectory over the next 20 years, to be hosted by Lloyd’s Maritime Academy. It starts this week in case you’re interested. And if it tickles your fancy, here’s a webinar introducing the subject. Anyway, it’s impossible to write about such matters without considering the Belt and Road Initiative; a sneaky preview of some of the course content reveals that in some