Macro-Economic Uncertainty We may not be home and dry when it comes to getting out of this pandemic, but we could be home and vigorously towelling ourselves down. Stock markets expect a recovery in economic activity as the pandemic is declared over and the virus becomes endemic. But geopolitical risk, rising inflation and central bank indications of forthcoming interest rate rises all cloud the geopolitical outlook and have given stock markets pause for thought in January. Ch

China’s breakneck pace of development has to end eventually – we have all understood that for some time. But even if it does, will trade slow with it? That depends on demand outside China, in its customer nations, particularly in the ASEAN region and in the OECD. The Asian Development Bank says that it “is revising its economic growth outlook for developing Asia after renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 led to slower growth in the third quarter.” In its last bulletin, in December 2

Positive news this month includes the peak of Omicron being passed, and the one billionth vaccine being given on 16th January according to the World Health Organisation. We may not be home and dry when it comes to getting out of this pandemic, but we could be home and vigorously towelling ourselves down. Stock markets expect a recovery in economic activity as the pandemic is declared over and the virus becomes endemic – a flu-like illness that will prey on the weak and the ol